INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW BRIEFING
Kyrgyzstan on the Edge
Bishkek/Brussels 9 November 2006: With Kyrgyzstan on the brink of what could yet become a civil war that would destabilise the fragile Central Asia region, the European Union and others must take urgent diplomatic initiatives.
Kyrgyzstan on the Edge,* a special conflict alert policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, warns that the confrontation between government and opposition demonstrators in the streets of the capital risks deepening into wider conflict. Despite the president’s signature of a new constitution on 9 November, the situation remains fragile. Crisis Group, which simultaneously wrote to EU, U.S., Russian, UN, and Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) leaders, calls for key international actors to send a mission to Bishkek to help the Kyrgyz parties keep talking, first to prevent violence but also to develop a longer-term mechanism t o resolve the underlying disputes.
“We’ve got to move very quickly to calm tempers on the ground”, says Michael Hall, Director of Crisis Group’s Central Asia Project. “But even if an immediate climb-down by both sides can be achieved, this will do nothing to resolve the underlying tensions”.
On Tuesday 7 November, the police and soldiers used stun grenades and tear gas to prevent clashes in central Bishkek. Armoured vehicles are in the streets of the capital trying to keep rival groups apart. This follows on growing opposition demonstrations demanding political reforms and checks on presidential power since the spring of 2006. While a compromise constitution has now been formally agreed, tensions remain, and the risk of conflict is still high.
Increasingly, the confrontation has taken on a regional character, with the government relying on support from the southern regions and the opposition relying heavily on support from the north. What began as a dispute between political elites is increasingly drawing in ordinary citizens. Police and security forces are split between the two camps.
The international community must act quickly to prevent escalation. The EU, U.S., UN, and OSCE should appeal urgently for mutual restraint. The OSCE mission in Bishkek should quickly bring together key individuals on the ground, and the OSCE secretary general and the EU special representative for Central Asia should go to Bishkek to act as intermediaries to help find further compromises
Beyond the urgent need for immediate diplomatic action to head off violence, the OSCE, EU, Russia, Kazakhstan and the U.S. all need to be more fully involved in a longer-term effort to restore political health by helping launch a national reconciliation effort to ease tensions between the country’s various regions and factions.
“There has to be an end to the use of ‘the street’ to settle political disputes”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director. “If Kyrgyzstan is to avoid becoming a failed state, the difficult work of fundamentally reforming its political institutions must begin at once”.
Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) 32 (0) 2 541 1635
Kimberly Abbott (Washington) 1 202 785 1601
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*Read the full Crisis Group briefing on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering over 50 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.